State of Origin - The Decider
June 26th 2008 10:05
Can QLD make it three straight series wins?
Lowdown
The decider is finally upon us. New South Wales have the chance of winning the shield for the first time in 2 years. Queensland are looking to make it three series wins on the trot.
The teams
NSW have made five changes to the side that got belted at Suncorp. Out go the Storm's Steve Turner, Newcastle's Steve Simpson, Brisbane's Peter Wallace, Cronulla's Greg Bird and the Dragons Mark Gasnier.
In their place, Jarryd Hayne takes Turner's spot on the wing while Joel Monaghan fills the void left by Gasnier at centre. Roosters halves Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pearce will fill the positions left vacant by both Wallace and Bird. Ben Cross is on the bench ahead of Newcastle team-mate Steve Simpson.
QLD have stuck with the same 17 that did the job at Suncorp. Their performace was so impressive, the selectors had it easy at the selection table this week. Even if Lockyer was fit, it was unlikely the Maroons would have changed their side.
For the record
The Maroons have the edge winning 40 games compared to the Blues 39. Series wins however are locked at 12 apiece. QLD have won the last two series but NSW won three in a row in 2003,04 and 05. The Maroons have won four of the last six games played between the sides.
The Forwards for the Blues have the potential to cause more grief than Morris Iemma's government. Anthony Tupou has the most linebreaks for a forward in the NRL with nine. Add to that 29 offloads (third in the NRL) and you can see why the Sharks are so keen for 2009 to approach. His influence on Origin has yet to be realised but is probably the most skillfull forward on the park. Paul Gallen is another man of immense importance. His offloading ability is second only to Feleti Mateo in the NRL. With 33 offloads next to his name, The Blues should have alot of second-phase play going in Origin three.
Knights main man Kurt Gidley is the trump card. He is the most effective running back in the NRL at the moment. He ranks fourth in the NRL for most runs made (210) and is the leading metre eater in the competition with 1970m. He also ranks second in the NRL for most tackle busts with 66. These stats tell the story of a man that loves running the football, and how it causes a hell of a lot of grieve for opposition.
Roosters five-eighth Braith Anasta is in career best form. He is second in the NRL for most try-assists with 19. Only Matt Orford (22) is higher placed. His combination with Mitchell Pearce is the deadliest in the competition. Between the pair they have orchestrated 32 tries which ranks them No.1 in terms of combinations in the NRL. The chemistry between these two could set NSW on course for victory.
Key for QLD
Storm fullback Billy Slater will be lethal off the bench if the maroon forwards dominate proceedings. Slater has the most line-breaks in the NRL with 15 and ranks fourth overall in tackle busts with 62. If the Blues forwards tire, Slater will tear NSW apart. His pace of the mark is the best in the competition. If he has a blinder, the Australian No.1 jersey could be his for World Cup time.
Scott Prince has stamped himself as the most skillful halfback in the competition. He ranks third overall in the NRL for most try-assists with 18. His goalkicking ability has also improved out of site. Prince ranks fourth for most goals and points scored in the NRL showcasing the responsibilities he has at the Gold Coast Titans. No doubt he could be the main man for QLD in securing a third straight series.
Goalkicking could prove to be a very important factor in the decider. The Maroons look to be the better suited in this department with an array of goalkickers in the side. Johnathon Thurston will be first choice, but both Scott Prince and Cameron Smith are more than capable of filling the void if injury strikes. Even Michael Crocker can convert goals if his times from the Roosters are anything to go by. The only recognisable kicker for the Blues is Roosters forward Craig Fitzgibbon.
Where it will be won
It starts and ends with the forward pack. Both teams must dominate territory before earning the right to play their hand out wide. On the slippery surface that is ANZ stadium, the Blues look to have the advantage when it comes to punching holes through the middle of the ruck. If the likes of Mason,White and Buderus get on the front foot, expect halves Braith Anasta and Mitchell Pearce to kick long and suffocate QLD's illustrious backline.
The Maroons on the other hand need Prince and Thurston to fire. For that to happen, QLD's forwards must lay a platform for these two to dominate with the ball in hand. If that occurs, Prince and Thurston will fuel the fire on what is arguably the most potent backline. The Maroons have the unique advantage of possessing more freakish gamebreakers than the Blues. The likes of Inglis, Thurston and Slater are all capable of great things at any stage of a game. If it comes down to big play, QLD are well served.
Prediction
At home, NSW have their best chance to reclaim Origin supremecy. Their record in Sydney is outstanding having only lost once. If the Blues forwards dominate early on, Anasta's kicking game will leave QLD on the backfoot for 80 minutes. The longer the game stays close however, the more confident the Maroons will feel in keeping the shield up north. NSW should hold on for their first series win since 2005.
| 53 |
| Vote |
Shared on
Subscribe to this blog
